Operating Dynamic Reserve Dimensioning Using Probabilistic Forecasts

The rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty the net demand, making system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by operators to manage hedge against such uncertainty. Traditionally, requirements are determined rules-of-thumb (static requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), more recently, dynamic from tools methods which in adoption process as Dynamic Assessment Determination Reserve ( DynADOR ), Reserves Dimensioning xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">DRD xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">RESERVE , among others. While these methods/tools significantly improve static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only). Consequently, disregard probabilistic thresholds associated with specific days their weather conditions plus uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches determine operating leveraging wealth information forecasts. Proposed validated tested using actual California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Results show benefits terms risk reduction considering forecast dimensioning requirements.